If you want corporate tax cuts, vote for Jack and the NDP

The last few days  have  have full of discussion about the rise in Jack Layton’s  popularity.  Hard  to understand – Jack Layton is a man who has made a career demonizing corporations and confusing a desirable  state  of affairs  with a just state  of affairs. In any case, if  the polls are to be believed (and the they may become a self-fulfilling prophecy), Jack Layton’s  popularity will bring the NDP  to heights  not seen since the  days of Ed Broadbent. What  does this  mean for the outcome  of the election on May 2?

My predication is that it means a Conservative Majority!

Look at it this way:

– Mr. Layton’s increased  popularity in Quebec will amount to nothing in relation to the Conservatives (the NDP  will just take seats from the Bloc). It could however mean something in terms of who  will be the Opposition Leader. The conventional wisdom is that Mr.  Ignatieff  will continue to be the Opposition Leader. That is far from certain.

– in the rest of Canada Mr. Layton’s popularity will be primarily at  the expense of the Liberals. The leaking of Liberal support  to the NDP gives the Conservatives  an excellent opportunity to win some of the closer  ridings. Interestingly,  the Conservatives  could  actually get fewer votes but win more  seats.

– The relevancy of the Green Party will be a casualty of  an increase of NDP  popularity.

So, the moral  of the story is:

If you want a Harper Majority then Vote  NDP!

Here is an interesting article written in June 2010 from a respected commentator which suggest  some of the same  things:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/817622–hebert-jack-layton-s-surge-great-news-for-stephen-harper

Hébert: Jack Layton’s surge great news for Stephen Harper

June 02, 2010

Chantal Hébert

Once in a blue moon, the political stars align in such a way as to give the federal NDP a bit of an edge over their Liberal rivals.

Advertisement

Strategic Voting – To Split the vote or not, that is the question

Strategic Voting – To Avoid Splitting The Vote

The Green Party and Green Party supporters have the potential to make  a big  difference in the May 2 election. The Green Party is on a growth trajectory and  may become a victim of its own success. Although the Greens are unlikely to win many seats (if  any), they are likely to have an influence on the outcome of this election. Green Party supporters are most likely to take  support from the Liberals  and NDP – increasing the chance  of  a Conservative being elected – and potentially giving the Conservatives their  coveted majority.  The Conservatives, could get the same number percentage  of votes as  in 2008 and win a majority. To put it simply:

As goes the Green Party, So go the Conservatives!