If you want corporate tax cuts, vote for Jack and the NDP

The last few days  have  have full of discussion about the rise in Jack Layton’s  popularity.  Hard  to understand – Jack Layton is a man who has made a career demonizing corporations and confusing a desirable  state  of affairs  with a just state  of affairs. In any case, if  the polls are to be believed (and the they may become a self-fulfilling prophecy), Jack Layton’s  popularity will bring the NDP  to heights  not seen since the  days of Ed Broadbent. What  does this  mean for the outcome  of the election on May 2?

My predication is that it means a Conservative Majority!

Look at it this way:

– Mr. Layton’s increased  popularity in Quebec will amount to nothing in relation to the Conservatives (the NDP  will just take seats from the Bloc). It could however mean something in terms of who  will be the Opposition Leader. The conventional wisdom is that Mr.  Ignatieff  will continue to be the Opposition Leader. That is far from certain.

– in the rest of Canada Mr. Layton’s popularity will be primarily at  the expense of the Liberals. The leaking of Liberal support  to the NDP gives the Conservatives  an excellent opportunity to win some of the closer  ridings. Interestingly,  the Conservatives  could  actually get fewer votes but win more  seats.

– The relevancy of the Green Party will be a casualty of  an increase of NDP  popularity.

So, the moral  of the story is:

If you want a Harper Majority then Vote  NDP!

Here is an interesting article written in June 2010 from a respected commentator which suggest  some of the same  things:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/817622–hebert-jack-layton-s-surge-great-news-for-stephen-harper

Hébert: Jack Layton’s surge great news for Stephen Harper

June 02, 2010

Chantal Hébert

Once in a blue moon, the political stars align in such a way as to give the federal NDP a bit of an edge over their Liberal rivals.

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Voting Reform – May Begin With The Format of the Ballot

On Sunday April 9, 2011 History Television began a mini-series about the Kennedy’s. The first instalment focused on John Kennedy’s rise to the presidency of the United States. Kennedy’s first foray into Federal politics was when he ran for Congress in Boston. In any case, (whether this is true of not), according to the show, in Kennedy’s first campaign he was running against two Joseph Russos – the name Joseph Russo appeared twice on the ballot. (Presumably there was another Joseph Russo in that district.) This meant that those who wanted to vote for their Joseph Russo did not know how to indicate that their vote was for their preferred Joseph Russo. The Joseph Russo vote was split and the name John Kennedy (if not the man himself) received the largest number of votes. Because of the second Joesph Russo, John Kennedy was “victorious”. This incident is also described in an excellent article by the journalist Seymour Hirsch.

Strategic Voting – To Split the vote or not, that is the question

Strategic Voting – To Avoid Splitting The Vote

The Green Party and Green Party supporters have the potential to make  a big  difference in the May 2 election. The Green Party is on a growth trajectory and  may become a victim of its own success. Although the Greens are unlikely to win many seats (if  any), they are likely to have an influence on the outcome of this election. Green Party supporters are most likely to take  support from the Liberals  and NDP – increasing the chance  of  a Conservative being elected – and potentially giving the Conservatives their  coveted majority.  The Conservatives, could get the same number percentage  of votes as  in 2008 and win a majority. To put it simply:

As goes the Green Party, So go the Conservatives!

Federal Election 2011 – Some Thoughts and Prognostications

Yesterday I had lunch with a friend who is well connected and knowledgeable about Federal politics. The thoughts immediately turned to election prognostications. This election has a strange feel  to it – kind  of like  people  feel  that they should be interested in it – even if they aren’t. Welcome to my series  of  thoughts on Federal  Election 2011.

Why are we having this election at all? The answer is simple:

This election is  NOT about the well being of the country. This  election IS about the well being of the parties and the party leaders.  To put it simply we are having this  election because:

– Harper wants  a Conservative  majority government
– Ignatieff wants to be Prime  Minister
– Layton wants  to matter to something beyond the NDP

Political  parties  are private organizations whose activities  are  largely funded by Canadian taxpayers. Consider this:

– the election of 2011 is an activity orchestrated by The Conservatives, Liberals and NDP which will  cost Canadian taxpayers in excess of 300 million dollars (Query Mr. Layton – should  this 300 million not have gone to the poor instead?)
– political parties  receive $1.95 from the taxpayers for  each vote their party receives